Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
